SCENARIOS: GINEBRA HAS THE BEST SHOT AT FINAL TWICE-TO-BEAT BONUS

WITH San Miguel taking the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals, only one twice-to-beat incentive in the quarterfinals is up for grabs in the PBA 48th Season Philippine Cup.

From the surface, it looks like Barangay Ginebra, NLEX, TNT, and Magnolia are the candidates to grab that final quarterfinal bonus based on their win-loss records.

The standings and their remaining opponents are as follows:

2. Barangay Ginebra 7-3 (NLEX on Sunday)

3. NLEX 5-4 (Rain or Shine on Friday, Barangay Ginebra on Sunday)

    TNT 5-4 (Converge on Wednesday, Magnolia on Sunday)

    Magnolia 5-4 (Terrafirma on Wednesday, TNT on Sunday)

This means that three teams can still end the elimination round with 7-4 win-loss records as TNT and Magnolia will part ways, being opponents on Sunday.

A reminder, ties are broken via the PBA quotient system except in deadlocks for No. 8 seed where a playoff game will be held.

A deep dive into the winning margins against each other show that Barangay Ginebra and NLEX have the inside track on the twice-to-beat advantage. Here are the chances of the four teams in securing the incentive.

[DISCLAIMER: Scenarios are unofficial and not binding information. They are solely done to give readers a picture on the possible outcomes at the end of the elimination round.]

BARANGAY GINEBRA

Ginebra has the strongest chance at claiming the No. 2, and it doesn’t even need to wait for its last elimination round game against NLEX on Sunday in order to secure the twice-to-beat incentive.

If NLEX loses to Rain or Shine on Friday, Ginebra will get the twice-to-beat advantage.

Ginebra, however, must beat NLEX if the Road Warriors win over Rain or Shine on Friday to take the twice-to-beat.

PHOTO: Jerome Ascano

Ginebra will still get the twice-to-beat advantage in the event of a tie with either TNT or Magnolia since they beat them in the elimination round by scores of 87-83 and 87-77 respectively.

A loss could complicate things for Ginebra as its chances rest on the NLEX’s winning margin and in the results of the remaining games of TNT and Magnolia.

NLEX

Despite their struggles, the Road Warriors still have a shot at No. 2. They need to sweep their remaining games against Rain or Shine on Friday and Ginebra on Sunday to grab the twice-to-beat incentive. This is of course assuming that TNT and Magnolia lose at least one of their two remaining outings.

However, there is a scenario that could see NLEX missing the twice-to-beat advantage over Ginebra even if the Road Warriors sweep their remaining assignments. That is if NLEX wins by just three points or less, and TNT beating Converge on Wednesday and Magnolia on Sunday. Ginebra captures the twice-to-beat due to a better quotient.

PHOTO: Jerome Ascano

TNT

A look at the permutations show that TNT is unlikely to capture the twice-to-beat advantage even with wins over Converge on Wednesday and Magnolia on Sunday, but can still play the spoilers’ role against Barangay Ginebra if they join NLEX in a three-way tie for second (See NLEX scenario).

MAGNOLIA

The Hotshots taking the twice-to-beat advantage appears to be a long shot now. Even if it beats Converge and TNT, Magnolia has a -23 point differential following defeats against Ginebra (87-77) and NLEX (87-74).

2024-04-29T14:07:46Z dg43tfdfdgfd